On the eve of the Congress government completing one year rule in Andhra Pradesh in its second innings, and especially after the death of YSR, TV9 conducted a survey through MDRA. Findings are quite interesting in the background of YSR’s son YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s isolation in the party. If the findings are reflective of the realities at the ground level, it must be an eye-opener to the high command and Jagan’s critics/detractors. The survey gives the impression that even performance cannot save the party in the state and that Jagan alone can pull the party out of the morass it finds itself in with too many factions pulling the party in different directions much to the glee of TDP and TRS.
It may be difficult for political observers to take the findings of the survey on their face value without being sceptical about the motives of the premier channel in the state. One cannot miss the timing of the survey though the channel has an excuse. Take for example this question. Who is the crowd puller in the party? The scope for answer is “None, Don’t know/can’t say, and Jagan Mohan Reddy”. One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to interpret this question. Naturally, more than 40% said “Jagan Reddy”. Every question is a loaded question in favour of Jagan.
Mediawhistle received 4 parts of the survey unsolicited. Here we reproduce the fourth part:
PART IV OF THE MRDA SURVEY FOR TV9
One year of a rule in a democracy is not long enough to assess and appraise whether the party in power has chance of a comeback. But considering the kind of turmoil the state of AP had gone through since the 2009 election with the death of CM YSR, the scene both with respect to politics and governance, has been witnessing unprecedented times full of uncertainties of all kind. It is against such a context, this MDRA survey for TV-9 on poll scene and prospects need to be viewed.
In this survey on the eve of completion of first year of Congress Govt’s second term in the state and Rosaiah’s eight months as Chief Minister, an effort was made to ascertain opportunities of parties and as to who had improved electorally since and what is the winning image of parties, which party benefited with the death of YSR and what would be voting preference.
1. Which party improved its position after the death of YSR? All respondents were asked as a part of the survey on the eve of first anniversary of Congress Govt’s second terms in the state.
Which party benefited after YSR death?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
44
57
35
TRS
19
9
49
Congress
26
28
9
PRP
6
1
1
Others/ DK/CS
4
4
5
TDP is viewed as the beneficiary of YSR’s death in all the regions. But in Telengana TRS is viewed as a beneficiary by a much higher percent of people. However, to what extent this is also meant electorally advantage would depend on other factors. Neither PRP nor BJP are viewed as beneficiaries.
2. Which party is expected to come to power if there is an election. What are the perceptions as things stand?
Which party is expected to come to power?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
31
39
37
TRS
+
+
39
Congress
49
57
21
PRP
18
1
1
Others
1
1
1
Perceptions as to which party is likely to come to power makes a difference, marginally or otherwise and help build up a poll scene. But that is when elections are within a near and known time frame.
Nevertheless, despite the disappointments, Congress party is perceived as the one likely to come to power by a significantly higher percent of voters in Coastal and Rayalseema (49-57%). But in Telengana, only 21% think so against 39% in the case of TRS and 37% in the case of TDP despite its “double speak” on Telengana.
3. Will Rosaiah be able to bring back Congress to form the Govt. whenever there are elections to the assembly?
Will Rosaiah bring back Congress to power?
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Yes
7
4
7
5
5
No
72
74
82
66
70
DK/CS
21
21
11
29
26
An overwhelming percent of people all across the state and among all socio-economic and demographic groups, think that Rosaiah will not be able to bring back Congress to power. This was response both in urban and rural. But that is the position if there is an election for the assembly around. This can only be an indication for the “mood’ of public since now to actual election time anything could happen in the party, outside with other parties and in the very functioning of the Govt.
4. Will the performance of Congress Govt. help it to come back to power? All respondents were asked. This enquiry assumes that the diction would be for the Assembly of Andhra Pradesh as at present.
Will performance bring back Congress?
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Not Sure
Coastal
9
79
1
11
Rayalseema
12
49
14
25
Telengana
8
65
7
21
In Congress held Constituencies
8
75
5
12
In other constituencies
10
60
8
22
A sensitivity analysis of the findings brings out a certain dilemma among voters at this point of time in mid May 2010. Going by the performance of Congress party in the last one year (and it obviously meant last 6-8 months with Rosaiah as CM), hardly ten percent expect Congress to come back. But when it comes to voting option and preference, a higher percent intend on voting for Congress as if that is a better option (with YSR schemes and the benefits there to see).
As high 39 percent in Rayalseema either are not sure or do not know or can not say – as if some are taking a wait and see approach (because of new options on its future).
But not so in Telengana – where it is only TRS which will have the advantage and retain its seats and even gain more seats. (But to a different question as to who will benefit if a separate state is made out, 26 percent in Telengana mentioned Congress and 14 percent said neither Congress nor TDP will benefit in Telengana) An implication is that once a separate state is agreed, the significance of TRS is unlikely to be the same as it is now.
5. Chances of Sitting MLAs getting elected again.
Yet another way of assessing poll prospects is win-ability of sitting MLAs. Going by this criterion, 54 percent of voters in constituencies with sitting Congress MLAs, think that the sitting will not get reelected. This finding needs to be seen as against only 28 percent who think so about their sitting in constituencies held by other parties (TRS, TDP). In Telengana, chances of TRS MLAs getting reelected are much higher than that of Congress and TDP MLAs. Clearly it amounts that voters are not only disappointed with Congress CM but also with their Congress MLAs. But the fact that 34 percent in constituencies held by TRS and TDP are not sure or can not say for the present imply that when it comes to voting, preferences are not polarized.
Relection chance of sitting MLA!
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Coastal
22
59
19
Rayalseema
31
24
45
Telengana
42
31
27
In Congress held constituencies
25
54
21
In other constituencies
37
28
34
6. Among Congress leaders who is viewed as the “crowd-puller” and “vote-getter” for Congress campaigns?
Who is crowd-puller and vote-getter for Congress party
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
None
27
29
23
16
40
DK/CS
27
28
8
39
41
Jagan Reddy
41
42
66
44
15
KCR
2
1
1
1
1
Generally party cadres in Congress tend to rally around leaders who are “crowd-pullers” and they are looked upon as a “vote-getters” too. Considering the kind of internal tussle going on within Congress party, all respondents were asked whom they consider as one such leader in Congress party. Despite too many leaders Congress has in Telengana, the party there seems suffering worst ever. For, 81% of respondents in Telengana consider none in the party as crowd-puller or a vote getter.
Jagan Reddy is as the only one who is considered by a high percent in Coastal (66%) and Rayalseema (44%). Only 15% think so in Telengana. The trend is similar in urban and rural.
7. Which leader is popular now in all parts of AP? All respondents were asked
Who is popular in all the regions?
(Figures in %)
Popular leader
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Congress MLA Seats
Other MLA Seats
Rosaiah
3
3
1
1
6
2
3
Chiranjeevi
7
6
14
2
2
10
4
Chandrababu
20
24
20
35
15
20
23
KCR
15
12
-
-
38
4
21
Jagan Reddy
52
51
62
56
36
60
45
DK/CS
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
Jagan Reddy is viewed as a leader across the regions by a much higher percent of voters, much higher than even Chandrababu Naidu who, after nine years as CM, otherwise is viewed as popular in the three regions but now next only to Jagan Reddy. Chiranjeevi is viewed popular by 14% in Coastal and by only insignificant percent in Rayalseema and Telengana. In Telengana Jagan Reddy (36%) has almost as many as in the case of KCR (38%) who think of him as a crowd puller and vote getter. Even in constituencies held by other parties, 45% think of Jagan Reddy against 21% who think of KCR and 23% in the case of Chandrababu.
A higher (24%) in rural consider Chandrababu as popular than in urban (20%). In the case of KCR, 15% think of him in urban against 12% in rural.
This survey brings out that both TDP and Congress slipped in Telengana in the vote intentions. This is despite that both the parties have a number of local leaders and that the two parties have been too smart in avoiding a definite stand on separation. But with one fifth of voters in Telengana are not sure or undecided about their voting performance, the scale may go either way depending on developments closer to the poll day. As of May 15, PRP has not improved in any of the regions. It in fact marginally slipped, while TRS had bettered its prospects in Telengana to win more seats.
8. Why shifts in voting intentions? A high percent of those who intend on voting differently now than the way they voted in 2009, were asked why they propose to do so?
Why wish to vote differently now if there is a poll?
(Figures in %)
In Congress held constituencies
In Other held constituencies
For separate Telengana
34
36
For Govt. job/employment
7
6
For drinking water
2
2
For better development
1
3
For batter candidate
13
13
For better administration
9
4
DK/CS
32
25
More than half of respondents who wish to vote differently now than the way they voted for in 2009 were not sure why they changed their preference. The percent of such voter is as high as 55 or more in Coastal and Rayalseema where as it is only 16% in the case of Telengana. That is separate Telengana issue will sway voters in Telengana significantly.
Half or more of those who intend on voting differently now if there is an election than they did is 2009, changed because of their support to the cause of separate Telengana. They voted earlier for Congress or TDP. The other reasons include “Better candidate” or unhappiness with sitting MLA. Employment opportunities, drinking water, better administration were also acknowledged as reasons.
With high undecided voters particularly in Telengana (one fifth), all that one could indicate now is a direction. The only party which is likely to increase its seats is TRS in Telengana. Even TDP is likely to improve its tally here, however marginally.
9. An Overview of Prospects
TDP holds on to its rural base, better than in urban; also among Madiga, and “other OBCs”. Its image at grass root level is better, but that is not getting converted into voting to make a difference in terms of seats. Overall, TDP has a chance of improving its overall tally, however marginally if it continues to draw back those who left it.
A majority of Kammas are not with TDP, they continue to be with Congress. Malas and Medigas continue their polarization between Congress and TDP. There is no significant change since 2009.
Reddies in Telengana have shifted to TRS. But, unlike Kammas in Coastal, they could be won back by Congress when the time comes. TDP’s two eyes approach has affected voting intention in Telengana only marginally. Both TDP & Congress declined in Telengana but Congress significantly.
Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress depending on what percent will go with PRP. They matter both for Congress & TDP.
Congress retains its lead in urban. But its image had suffered. It is YSR brand (promises, programms, schemes) which is likely to save the party – assuming Rosaiah will be assertive and positive Congress will be ahead in terms of voter support.
Overall, Congress has better chance to retain power in AP (despite decline in voting intentions in all regions) assuming MLAs create no problems and ministers will not mess up. If Jagan Reddy takes over as PCC Chief or some such responsible post, Congress can swing back or even do better than 2009.
Cyclone is an opportunity for Rosaiah to retrieve some of his lost ground within and outside the party.
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