Panicky Rosaiah on backfoot as YSR birthday fete turns ‘official’Even Dist Collectors Told To Conduct Celebrations In A Big WayIT’S OFFICIAL: Dancers perfom at a function organised on the occasion of 61st birthday celebrations of former chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy at Ravindra Bharathi in the city on Thursday Hyderabad/Vijayawada: Amidst heightened political tensions, the state government celebrated late YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s 61st birth anniversary celebrations on Thursday. The official purpose was to take away the thunder from Jagan’s Odarpu yatra in Srikakulam, which attracted big crowds. To encash the YSR sentiment, the government hurriedly asked the district administrations to organise the birth anniversary celebrations as an official programme. Curiously, no other late CM was accorded such a privilege in districts though there is a practice of incumbent CM and his cabinet colleagues paying tributes in the state capital. While chief minister K Rosaiah unveiled a life-size portrait of YSR in the main lobby of the state Assembly and offered floral tributes along with ministers, MLAs and MLCs, the TDP stayed away from the event. TDP deputy leader Gali Muddukrishnama Naidu raised objection to the installation of YSR’s portrait in the Assembly lobby saying it was unprecedented. “Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy and P V Narasimha Rao who served as CMs went on to become the president and the prime minister respectively. Even their portraits were not installed in the Assembly,” he pointed out. Well, the Congressgovernment knows it could illafford to overlook the mounting sympathy for YSR family in the aftermath of controversies surrounding Jagan’s yatra. Hence, the “official” tag for YSR’s birth anniversary. N T Ramarao, the first non-Congress CM who served the state for over seven years, was not given such a treatment by successive Congress governments. Only, TDP leaders and family members go to NTR Ghat to pay tributes to the charismatic leader. Recently, the birth anniversary of PV Narasimha Rao was celebrated in Hyderabad and nowhere the fete was organised, including his home district of Karimnagar. While the birth anniversaries of first PM Jawaharlal Nehru and longest-served PM Indira Gandhi are observed by the education department, the birth anniversary of Rajiv Gandhi is confined to Congress party offices only. “We get instructions on the birth anniversaries of Mahatma Gandhi, B R Ambedkar and Babu Jagjivan Ram to conduct them as official programmes. On Thursday, YSR birth anniversary fete was conducted as an official programme,” explained a district collector. While the district administration in Prakasam pays tributes to the late CM Prakasam Panthulu in his home district, there is no evidence of such events being organised for Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy in Anantapur, Kotla Vijayabhaskara Reddy in Kurnool or for remembering Kasu Bramhananda Reddy in Guntur and NTR in Krishna districts. “Even if such events are organised, such programmes are confined to a formal garlanding of the statue or a portrait. But certainly not as a large event as organised in memory of YSR,” a senior official said. Krishna district in-charge collector Gaurav Uppal, who personally reviewed the arrangements, had directed the district educational officer to issue instructions to all the headmasters of the schools to organise essay-writing, painting and elocution competitions and present certificates to the winners. In Guntur, district collector B Ramanjaneyulu insisted that all the officials be present for the birthday celebrations. “It seems it’s purely a political decision keeping in view of Jagan’s attempt to take away the legacy of his father from the Congress party fold,” said a to official in Nellore.  |
Showing posts with label YS Jagan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label YS Jagan. Show all posts
10.7.10
Panicky Rosaiah on backfoot as YSR birthday fete turns ‘official’
Independent Media
9.7.10
Andhra Pradesh 'S HERO YSR : Mahatma of Andhra Pradesh
Independent Media
Jagan blows political bugle
Icchapuram (Srikakulam): It was supposed to be an Odarpu yatra (journey for consoling the griefstricken) but Jaganmohan Reddy converted it into a massive political rally. The young scion of the YSR family announced loud and clear that he had arrived and whatever the Congress high command may be thinking, he was in the race for the top job in the state.
“My father is dead. But in your (people’s) heartbeat I hear my father’s heartbeat,” Jagan said loudly into the mike as his Odarpu caravan surged ahead on day one of the yatra in Srikakulam district in the north-east corner of the state. As thousands clapped and hooted, the young MP said his father left behind a big family and it was his duty to take care of it.
He said whenever he asked for anything from his mother, she used to tell him that he would get valuable gifts on his father’s birthday. “People’s love is the most valuable gift I have got now. I will never forget your love for me and my family,” he said. As his convoy, consisting of 80-100 vehicles, slowly made its way, Jagan stopped his vehicle, waved at the crowds and gave impromptu speeches, indicating he was the true inheritor of the YSR legacy. Upping the ante, he even went on to compare his father to Mahatma Gandhi. In a message to the people on the occasion of YSR’s 61st birth anniversary, Jagan said, “Our leader Rajasekhara Reddy belonged to the same league.”
“I am happy you are celebrating my father’s birthday. Mahatma Gandhi said my life is a message to the nation. My father’s life too is a message to the state of Andhra Pradesh. The way he lived and his affectionate way of wishing the people is a message,” he said.
Jagan said he was overwhelmed by the affection and love the people showered on him during his Odarpu yatras. “I learnt a lot from him. You all (people) have also learnt a lot from him. I thank each one of you with folded hands for your support,” he said. Jagan said he did not feel lonely as his father had given him a huge family that comprised the whole of AP.
The yatra resembled a road show. “Nothing more, nothing less,” said a leader following the yatra. Earlier, Jagan arrived at Icchapuram from Hyderabad by Faluknuma Express in the morning and was received by thousands of his fans and Congress workers. The young leader unveiled a statue of his father at the bus stand centre.
Jagan blows political bugle
Likens His Father To Mahatma
Icchapuram (Srikakulam): It was supposed to be an Odarpu yatra (journey for consoling the griefstricken) but Jaganmohan Reddy converted it into a massive political rally. The young scion of the YSR family announced loud and clear that he had arrived and whatever the Congress high command may be thinking, he was in the race for the top job in the state.
“My father is dead. But in your (people’s) heartbeat I hear my father’s heartbeat,” Jagan said loudly into the mike as his Odarpu caravan surged ahead on day one of the yatra in Srikakulam district in the north-east corner of the state. As thousands clapped and hooted, the young MP said his father left behind a big family and it was his duty to take care of it.
He said whenever he asked for anything from his mother, she used to tell him that he would get valuable gifts on his father’s birthday. “People’s love is the most valuable gift I have got now. I will never forget your love for me and my family,” he said. As his convoy, consisting of 80-100 vehicles, slowly made its way, Jagan stopped his vehicle, waved at the crowds and gave impromptu speeches, indicating he was the true inheritor of the YSR legacy. Upping the ante, he even went on to compare his father to Mahatma Gandhi. In a message to the people on the occasion of YSR’s 61st birth anniversary, Jagan said, “Our leader Rajasekhara Reddy belonged to the same league.”
“I am happy you are celebrating my father’s birthday. Mahatma Gandhi said my life is a message to the nation. My father’s life too is a message to the state of Andhra Pradesh. The way he lived and his affectionate way of wishing the people is a message,” he said.
Jagan said he was overwhelmed by the affection and love the people showered on him during his Odarpu yatras. “I learnt a lot from him. You all (people) have also learnt a lot from him. I thank each one of you with folded hands for your support,” he said. Jagan said he did not feel lonely as his father had given him a huge family that comprised the whole of AP.
The yatra resembled a road show. “Nothing more, nothing less,” said a leader following the yatra. Earlier, Jagan arrived at Icchapuram from Hyderabad by Faluknuma Express in the morning and was received by thousands of his fans and Congress workers. The young leader unveiled a statue of his father at the bus stand centre.
8.7.10
Jagan's yatra : Worng Calculations by the state Congress intelligence
Independent Media
Hyderabad: The Congress may not approve of his 'odarpu yatra', but thousands of people poured into the streets of Srikakulam to welcome Jaganmohan Reddy, as he arrived there on his father's birth anniversary.
"My father did not leave me orphaned. He left me with this huge family, the people of Andhra Pradesh,'' said Jagan. The crowd roared back with approval.
On record, Jagan and the Congress have stopped short of acknowledging the tour as an open act of defiance. But the revolt has been public - and with considerable impact, at least in this part of northcoastal Andhra Pradesh, where Jagan's father, YSR, had ended his 1400-kilometre padyatra in 2003, that catapulted him to the chief minister's chair a year later.
Earlier this week, the party objected again when Jagan said his road show would continue on his father's birth anniversary. Party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi warned Jagan "not to cross the Lakshman Rekha."
The Congress' stand, as defined reportedly by Sonia Gandhi, was that she was not against the `odarpu yatra' but suggested that the families of those who committed suicide following YSR's death should be assembled at one place and offered financial help whereas Jagan said he was going to tour to console families and not to distribute money. That his mother had pointed out to Sonia Gandhi that she had not summoned them to Delhi to console the family after YSR's death, she had come down herself to Hyderabad.
So, undeterred, Jagan continued with his plans for a three-day journey to Srikakulam and other northcoastal districts.
Jagan has described the tour as a series of condolence calls on families whose members died allegedly from the shock of hearing about YSR's death in a helicopter crash in September last year. But the Congress party has asked him twice now to call off the journey. In late May, the tour provoked violence when Jagan tried to enter the politically-volatile region of Telangana, which is upset that politicians like Jagan are not actively supporting its demand for a separate state. The riot and Jagan's arrest in Nalgonda district Mahbubnagar was followed by a quick journey to Delhi where Jagan met with Sonia Gandhi.
Hyderabad: The Congress may not approve of his 'odarpu yatra', but thousands of people poured into the streets of Srikakulam to welcome Jaganmohan Reddy, as he arrived there on his father's birth anniversary.
"My father did not leave me orphaned. He left me with this huge family, the people of Andhra Pradesh,'' said Jagan. The crowd roared back with approval.
On record, Jagan and the Congress have stopped short of acknowledging the tour as an open act of defiance. But the revolt has been public - and with considerable impact, at least in this part of northcoastal Andhra Pradesh, where Jagan's father, YSR, had ended his 1400-kilometre padyatra in 2003, that catapulted him to the chief minister's chair a year later.
Earlier this week, the party objected again when Jagan said his road show would continue on his father's birth anniversary. Party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi warned Jagan "not to cross the Lakshman Rekha."
The Congress' stand, as defined reportedly by Sonia Gandhi, was that she was not against the `odarpu yatra' but suggested that the families of those who committed suicide following YSR's death should be assembled at one place and offered financial help whereas Jagan said he was going to tour to console families and not to distribute money. That his mother had pointed out to Sonia Gandhi that she had not summoned them to Delhi to console the family after YSR's death, she had come down herself to Hyderabad.
So, undeterred, Jagan continued with his plans for a three-day journey to Srikakulam and other northcoastal districts.
Jagan has described the tour as a series of condolence calls on families whose members died allegedly from the shock of hearing about YSR's death in a helicopter crash in September last year. But the Congress party has asked him twice now to call off the journey. In late May, the tour provoked violence when Jagan tried to enter the politically-volatile region of Telangana, which is upset that politicians like Jagan are not actively supporting its demand for a separate state. The riot and Jagan's arrest in Nalgonda district Mahbubnagar was followed by a quick journey to Delhi where Jagan met with Sonia Gandhi.
He was asked to stop the tour. in the form form Victory Yatra huge Band wagon, insted with small number like Raul Gandhi, as suggested by AP CM Raosiah who isnot memebr of Legislative Assembley, Who is Counsel Member, siting Mrs sonia Gandhi Experince in Antapur with victims of the farmer suicides in AP orggansied by Slain ed leader Dr,YSR in 2000-2001 At antapur, which is not acceptable to Younf leader as he is already chlaked out tour plan and it as his 4 leg of th e odarpu yatra, I think Congress leadership should not go with State party information all alone
7.7.10
A TV9 SURVEY FOR JAGAN
Independent Media
On the eve of the Congress government completing one year rule in Andhra Pradesh in its second innings, and especially after the death of YSR, TV9 conducted a survey through MDRA. Findings are quite interesting in the background of YSR’s son YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s isolation in the party. If the findings are reflective of the realities at the ground level, it must be an eye-opener to the high command and Jagan’s critics/detractors. The survey gives the impression that even performance cannot save the party in the state and that Jagan alone can pull the party out of the morass it finds itself in with too many factions pulling the party in different directions much to the glee of TDP and TRS.
It may be difficult for political observers to take the findings of the survey on their face value without being sceptical about the motives of the premier channel in the state. One cannot miss the timing of the survey though the channel has an excuse. Take for example this question. Who is the crowd puller in the party? The scope for answer is “None, Don’t know/can’t say, and Jagan Mohan Reddy”. One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to interpret this question. Naturally, more than 40% said “Jagan Reddy”. Every question is a loaded question in favour of Jagan.
Mediawhistle received 4 parts of the survey unsolicited. Here we reproduce the fourth part:
PART IV OF THE MRDA SURVEY FOR TV9
One year of a rule in a democracy is not long enough to assess and appraise whether the party in power has chance of a comeback. But considering the kind of turmoil the state of AP had gone through since the 2009 election with the death of CM YSR, the scene both with respect to politics and governance, has been witnessing unprecedented times full of uncertainties of all kind. It is against such a context, this MDRA survey for TV-9 on poll scene and prospects need to be viewed.
In this survey on the eve of completion of first year of Congress Govt’s second term in the state and Rosaiah’s eight months as Chief Minister, an effort was made to ascertain opportunities of parties and as to who had improved electorally since and what is the winning image of parties, which party benefited with the death of YSR and what would be voting preference.
1. Which party improved its position after the death of YSR? All respondents were asked as a part of the survey on the eve of first anniversary of Congress Govt’s second terms in the state.
Which party benefited after YSR death?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
44
57
35
TRS
19
9
49
Congress
26
28
9
PRP
6
1
1
Others/ DK/CS
4
4
5
TDP is viewed as the beneficiary of YSR’s death in all the regions. But in Telengana TRS is viewed as a beneficiary by a much higher percent of people. However, to what extent this is also meant electorally advantage would depend on other factors. Neither PRP nor BJP are viewed as beneficiaries.
2. Which party is expected to come to power if there is an election. What are the perceptions as things stand?
Which party is expected to come to power?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
31
39
37
TRS
+
+
39
Congress
49
57
21
PRP
18
1
1
Others
1
1
1
Perceptions as to which party is likely to come to power makes a difference, marginally or otherwise and help build up a poll scene. But that is when elections are within a near and known time frame.
Nevertheless, despite the disappointments, Congress party is perceived as the one likely to come to power by a significantly higher percent of voters in Coastal and Rayalseema (49-57%). But in Telengana, only 21% think so against 39% in the case of TRS and 37% in the case of TDP despite its “double speak” on Telengana.
3. Will Rosaiah be able to bring back Congress to form the Govt. whenever there are elections to the assembly?
Will Rosaiah bring back Congress to power?
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Yes
7
4
7
5
5
No
72
74
82
66
70
DK/CS
21
21
11
29
26
An overwhelming percent of people all across the state and among all socio-economic and demographic groups, think that Rosaiah will not be able to bring back Congress to power. This was response both in urban and rural. But that is the position if there is an election for the assembly around. This can only be an indication for the “mood’ of public since now to actual election time anything could happen in the party, outside with other parties and in the very functioning of the Govt.
4. Will the performance of Congress Govt. help it to come back to power? All respondents were asked. This enquiry assumes that the diction would be for the Assembly of Andhra Pradesh as at present.
Will performance bring back Congress?
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Not Sure
Coastal
9
79
1
11
Rayalseema
12
49
14
25
Telengana
8
65
7
21
In Congress held Constituencies
8
75
5
12
In other constituencies
10
60
8
22
A sensitivity analysis of the findings brings out a certain dilemma among voters at this point of time in mid May 2010. Going by the performance of Congress party in the last one year (and it obviously meant last 6-8 months with Rosaiah as CM), hardly ten percent expect Congress to come back. But when it comes to voting option and preference, a higher percent intend on voting for Congress as if that is a better option (with YSR schemes and the benefits there to see).
As high 39 percent in Rayalseema either are not sure or do not know or can not say – as if some are taking a wait and see approach (because of new options on its future).
But not so in Telengana – where it is only TRS which will have the advantage and retain its seats and even gain more seats. (But to a different question as to who will benefit if a separate state is made out, 26 percent in Telengana mentioned Congress and 14 percent said neither Congress nor TDP will benefit in Telengana) An implication is that once a separate state is agreed, the significance of TRS is unlikely to be the same as it is now.
5. Chances of Sitting MLAs getting elected again.
Yet another way of assessing poll prospects is win-ability of sitting MLAs. Going by this criterion, 54 percent of voters in constituencies with sitting Congress MLAs, think that the sitting will not get reelected. This finding needs to be seen as against only 28 percent who think so about their sitting in constituencies held by other parties (TRS, TDP). In Telengana, chances of TRS MLAs getting reelected are much higher than that of Congress and TDP MLAs. Clearly it amounts that voters are not only disappointed with Congress CM but also with their Congress MLAs. But the fact that 34 percent in constituencies held by TRS and TDP are not sure or can not say for the present imply that when it comes to voting, preferences are not polarized.
Relection chance of sitting MLA!
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Coastal
22
59
19
Rayalseema
31
24
45
Telengana
42
31
27
In Congress held constituencies
25
54
21
In other constituencies
37
28
34
6. Among Congress leaders who is viewed as the “crowd-puller” and “vote-getter” for Congress campaigns?
Who is crowd-puller and vote-getter for Congress party
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
None
27
29
23
16
40
DK/CS
27
28
8
39
41
Jagan Reddy
41
42
66
44
15
KCR
2
1
1
1
1
Generally party cadres in Congress tend to rally around leaders who are “crowd-pullers” and they are looked upon as a “vote-getters” too. Considering the kind of internal tussle going on within Congress party, all respondents were asked whom they consider as one such leader in Congress party. Despite too many leaders Congress has in Telengana, the party there seems suffering worst ever. For, 81% of respondents in Telengana consider none in the party as crowd-puller or a vote getter.
Jagan Reddy is as the only one who is considered by a high percent in Coastal (66%) and Rayalseema (44%). Only 15% think so in Telengana. The trend is similar in urban and rural.
7. Which leader is popular now in all parts of AP? All respondents were asked
Who is popular in all the regions?
(Figures in %)
Popular leader
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Congress MLA Seats
Other MLA Seats
Rosaiah
3
3
1
1
6
2
3
Chiranjeevi
7
6
14
2
2
10
4
Chandrababu
20
24
20
35
15
20
23
KCR
15
12
-
-
38
4
21
Jagan Reddy
52
51
62
56
36
60
45
DK/CS
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
Jagan Reddy is viewed as a leader across the regions by a much higher percent of voters, much higher than even Chandrababu Naidu who, after nine years as CM, otherwise is viewed as popular in the three regions but now next only to Jagan Reddy. Chiranjeevi is viewed popular by 14% in Coastal and by only insignificant percent in Rayalseema and Telengana. In Telengana Jagan Reddy (36%) has almost as many as in the case of KCR (38%) who think of him as a crowd puller and vote getter. Even in constituencies held by other parties, 45% think of Jagan Reddy against 21% who think of KCR and 23% in the case of Chandrababu.
A higher (24%) in rural consider Chandrababu as popular than in urban (20%). In the case of KCR, 15% think of him in urban against 12% in rural.
This survey brings out that both TDP and Congress slipped in Telengana in the vote intentions. This is despite that both the parties have a number of local leaders and that the two parties have been too smart in avoiding a definite stand on separation. But with one fifth of voters in Telengana are not sure or undecided about their voting performance, the scale may go either way depending on developments closer to the poll day. As of May 15, PRP has not improved in any of the regions. It in fact marginally slipped, while TRS had bettered its prospects in Telengana to win more seats.
8. Why shifts in voting intentions? A high percent of those who intend on voting differently now than the way they voted in 2009, were asked why they propose to do so?
Why wish to vote differently now if there is a poll?
(Figures in %)
In Congress held constituencies
In Other held constituencies
For separate Telengana
34
36
For Govt. job/employment
7
6
For drinking water
2
2
For better development
1
3
For batter candidate
13
13
For better administration
9
4
DK/CS
32
25
More than half of respondents who wish to vote differently now than the way they voted for in 2009 were not sure why they changed their preference. The percent of such voter is as high as 55 or more in Coastal and Rayalseema where as it is only 16% in the case of Telengana. That is separate Telengana issue will sway voters in Telengana significantly.
Half or more of those who intend on voting differently now if there is an election than they did is 2009, changed because of their support to the cause of separate Telengana. They voted earlier for Congress or TDP. The other reasons include “Better candidate” or unhappiness with sitting MLA. Employment opportunities, drinking water, better administration were also acknowledged as reasons.
With high undecided voters particularly in Telengana (one fifth), all that one could indicate now is a direction. The only party which is likely to increase its seats is TRS in Telengana. Even TDP is likely to improve its tally here, however marginally.
9. An Overview of Prospects
TDP holds on to its rural base, better than in urban; also among Madiga, and “other OBCs”. Its image at grass root level is better, but that is not getting converted into voting to make a difference in terms of seats. Overall, TDP has a chance of improving its overall tally, however marginally if it continues to draw back those who left it.
A majority of Kammas are not with TDP, they continue to be with Congress. Malas and Medigas continue their polarization between Congress and TDP. There is no significant change since 2009.
Reddies in Telengana have shifted to TRS. But, unlike Kammas in Coastal, they could be won back by Congress when the time comes. TDP’s two eyes approach has affected voting intention in Telengana only marginally. Both TDP & Congress declined in Telengana but Congress significantly.
Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress depending on what percent will go with PRP. They matter both for Congress & TDP.
Congress retains its lead in urban. But its image had suffered. It is YSR brand (promises, programms, schemes) which is likely to save the party – assuming Rosaiah will be assertive and positive Congress will be ahead in terms of voter support.
Overall, Congress has better chance to retain power in AP (despite decline in voting intentions in all regions) assuming MLAs create no problems and ministers will not mess up. If Jagan Reddy takes over as PCC Chief or some such responsible post, Congress can swing back or even do better than 2009.
Cyclone is an opportunity for Rosaiah to retrieve some of his lost ground within and outside the party.
On the eve of the Congress government completing one year rule in Andhra Pradesh in its second innings, and especially after the death of YSR, TV9 conducted a survey through MDRA. Findings are quite interesting in the background of YSR’s son YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s isolation in the party. If the findings are reflective of the realities at the ground level, it must be an eye-opener to the high command and Jagan’s critics/detractors. The survey gives the impression that even performance cannot save the party in the state and that Jagan alone can pull the party out of the morass it finds itself in with too many factions pulling the party in different directions much to the glee of TDP and TRS.
It may be difficult for political observers to take the findings of the survey on their face value without being sceptical about the motives of the premier channel in the state. One cannot miss the timing of the survey though the channel has an excuse. Take for example this question. Who is the crowd puller in the party? The scope for answer is “None, Don’t know/can’t say, and Jagan Mohan Reddy”. One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to interpret this question. Naturally, more than 40% said “Jagan Reddy”. Every question is a loaded question in favour of Jagan.
Mediawhistle received 4 parts of the survey unsolicited. Here we reproduce the fourth part:
PART IV OF THE MRDA SURVEY FOR TV9
One year of a rule in a democracy is not long enough to assess and appraise whether the party in power has chance of a comeback. But considering the kind of turmoil the state of AP had gone through since the 2009 election with the death of CM YSR, the scene both with respect to politics and governance, has been witnessing unprecedented times full of uncertainties of all kind. It is against such a context, this MDRA survey for TV-9 on poll scene and prospects need to be viewed.
In this survey on the eve of completion of first year of Congress Govt’s second term in the state and Rosaiah’s eight months as Chief Minister, an effort was made to ascertain opportunities of parties and as to who had improved electorally since and what is the winning image of parties, which party benefited with the death of YSR and what would be voting preference.
1. Which party improved its position after the death of YSR? All respondents were asked as a part of the survey on the eve of first anniversary of Congress Govt’s second terms in the state.
Which party benefited after YSR death?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
44
57
35
TRS
19
9
49
Congress
26
28
9
PRP
6
1
1
Others/ DK/CS
4
4
5
TDP is viewed as the beneficiary of YSR’s death in all the regions. But in Telengana TRS is viewed as a beneficiary by a much higher percent of people. However, to what extent this is also meant electorally advantage would depend on other factors. Neither PRP nor BJP are viewed as beneficiaries.
2. Which party is expected to come to power if there is an election. What are the perceptions as things stand?
Which party is expected to come to power?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
31
39
37
TRS
+
+
39
Congress
49
57
21
PRP
18
1
1
Others
1
1
1
Perceptions as to which party is likely to come to power makes a difference, marginally or otherwise and help build up a poll scene. But that is when elections are within a near and known time frame.
Nevertheless, despite the disappointments, Congress party is perceived as the one likely to come to power by a significantly higher percent of voters in Coastal and Rayalseema (49-57%). But in Telengana, only 21% think so against 39% in the case of TRS and 37% in the case of TDP despite its “double speak” on Telengana.
3. Will Rosaiah be able to bring back Congress to form the Govt. whenever there are elections to the assembly?
Will Rosaiah bring back Congress to power?
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Yes
7
4
7
5
5
No
72
74
82
66
70
DK/CS
21
21
11
29
26
An overwhelming percent of people all across the state and among all socio-economic and demographic groups, think that Rosaiah will not be able to bring back Congress to power. This was response both in urban and rural. But that is the position if there is an election for the assembly around. This can only be an indication for the “mood’ of public since now to actual election time anything could happen in the party, outside with other parties and in the very functioning of the Govt.
4. Will the performance of Congress Govt. help it to come back to power? All respondents were asked. This enquiry assumes that the diction would be for the Assembly of Andhra Pradesh as at present.
Will performance bring back Congress?
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Not Sure
Coastal
9
79
1
11
Rayalseema
12
49
14
25
Telengana
8
65
7
21
In Congress held Constituencies
8
75
5
12
In other constituencies
10
60
8
22
A sensitivity analysis of the findings brings out a certain dilemma among voters at this point of time in mid May 2010. Going by the performance of Congress party in the last one year (and it obviously meant last 6-8 months with Rosaiah as CM), hardly ten percent expect Congress to come back. But when it comes to voting option and preference, a higher percent intend on voting for Congress as if that is a better option (with YSR schemes and the benefits there to see).
As high 39 percent in Rayalseema either are not sure or do not know or can not say – as if some are taking a wait and see approach (because of new options on its future).
But not so in Telengana – where it is only TRS which will have the advantage and retain its seats and even gain more seats. (But to a different question as to who will benefit if a separate state is made out, 26 percent in Telengana mentioned Congress and 14 percent said neither Congress nor TDP will benefit in Telengana) An implication is that once a separate state is agreed, the significance of TRS is unlikely to be the same as it is now.
5. Chances of Sitting MLAs getting elected again.
Yet another way of assessing poll prospects is win-ability of sitting MLAs. Going by this criterion, 54 percent of voters in constituencies with sitting Congress MLAs, think that the sitting will not get reelected. This finding needs to be seen as against only 28 percent who think so about their sitting in constituencies held by other parties (TRS, TDP). In Telengana, chances of TRS MLAs getting reelected are much higher than that of Congress and TDP MLAs. Clearly it amounts that voters are not only disappointed with Congress CM but also with their Congress MLAs. But the fact that 34 percent in constituencies held by TRS and TDP are not sure or can not say for the present imply that when it comes to voting, preferences are not polarized.
Relection chance of sitting MLA!
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Coastal
22
59
19
Rayalseema
31
24
45
Telengana
42
31
27
In Congress held constituencies
25
54
21
In other constituencies
37
28
34
6. Among Congress leaders who is viewed as the “crowd-puller” and “vote-getter” for Congress campaigns?
Who is crowd-puller and vote-getter for Congress party
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
None
27
29
23
16
40
DK/CS
27
28
8
39
41
Jagan Reddy
41
42
66
44
15
KCR
2
1
1
1
1
Generally party cadres in Congress tend to rally around leaders who are “crowd-pullers” and they are looked upon as a “vote-getters” too. Considering the kind of internal tussle going on within Congress party, all respondents were asked whom they consider as one such leader in Congress party. Despite too many leaders Congress has in Telengana, the party there seems suffering worst ever. For, 81% of respondents in Telengana consider none in the party as crowd-puller or a vote getter.
Jagan Reddy is as the only one who is considered by a high percent in Coastal (66%) and Rayalseema (44%). Only 15% think so in Telengana. The trend is similar in urban and rural.
7. Which leader is popular now in all parts of AP? All respondents were asked
Who is popular in all the regions?
(Figures in %)
Popular leader
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Congress MLA Seats
Other MLA Seats
Rosaiah
3
3
1
1
6
2
3
Chiranjeevi
7
6
14
2
2
10
4
Chandrababu
20
24
20
35
15
20
23
KCR
15
12
-
-
38
4
21
Jagan Reddy
52
51
62
56
36
60
45
DK/CS
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
Jagan Reddy is viewed as a leader across the regions by a much higher percent of voters, much higher than even Chandrababu Naidu who, after nine years as CM, otherwise is viewed as popular in the three regions but now next only to Jagan Reddy. Chiranjeevi is viewed popular by 14% in Coastal and by only insignificant percent in Rayalseema and Telengana. In Telengana Jagan Reddy (36%) has almost as many as in the case of KCR (38%) who think of him as a crowd puller and vote getter. Even in constituencies held by other parties, 45% think of Jagan Reddy against 21% who think of KCR and 23% in the case of Chandrababu.
A higher (24%) in rural consider Chandrababu as popular than in urban (20%). In the case of KCR, 15% think of him in urban against 12% in rural.
This survey brings out that both TDP and Congress slipped in Telengana in the vote intentions. This is despite that both the parties have a number of local leaders and that the two parties have been too smart in avoiding a definite stand on separation. But with one fifth of voters in Telengana are not sure or undecided about their voting performance, the scale may go either way depending on developments closer to the poll day. As of May 15, PRP has not improved in any of the regions. It in fact marginally slipped, while TRS had bettered its prospects in Telengana to win more seats.
8. Why shifts in voting intentions? A high percent of those who intend on voting differently now than the way they voted in 2009, were asked why they propose to do so?
Why wish to vote differently now if there is a poll?
(Figures in %)
In Congress held constituencies
In Other held constituencies
For separate Telengana
34
36
For Govt. job/employment
7
6
For drinking water
2
2
For better development
1
3
For batter candidate
13
13
For better administration
9
4
DK/CS
32
25
More than half of respondents who wish to vote differently now than the way they voted for in 2009 were not sure why they changed their preference. The percent of such voter is as high as 55 or more in Coastal and Rayalseema where as it is only 16% in the case of Telengana. That is separate Telengana issue will sway voters in Telengana significantly.
Half or more of those who intend on voting differently now if there is an election than they did is 2009, changed because of their support to the cause of separate Telengana. They voted earlier for Congress or TDP. The other reasons include “Better candidate” or unhappiness with sitting MLA. Employment opportunities, drinking water, better administration were also acknowledged as reasons.
With high undecided voters particularly in Telengana (one fifth), all that one could indicate now is a direction. The only party which is likely to increase its seats is TRS in Telengana. Even TDP is likely to improve its tally here, however marginally.
9. An Overview of Prospects
TDP holds on to its rural base, better than in urban; also among Madiga, and “other OBCs”. Its image at grass root level is better, but that is not getting converted into voting to make a difference in terms of seats. Overall, TDP has a chance of improving its overall tally, however marginally if it continues to draw back those who left it.
A majority of Kammas are not with TDP, they continue to be with Congress. Malas and Medigas continue their polarization between Congress and TDP. There is no significant change since 2009.
Reddies in Telengana have shifted to TRS. But, unlike Kammas in Coastal, they could be won back by Congress when the time comes. TDP’s two eyes approach has affected voting intention in Telengana only marginally. Both TDP & Congress declined in Telengana but Congress significantly.
Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress depending on what percent will go with PRP. They matter both for Congress & TDP.
Congress retains its lead in urban. But its image had suffered. It is YSR brand (promises, programms, schemes) which is likely to save the party – assuming Rosaiah will be assertive and positive Congress will be ahead in terms of voter support.
Overall, Congress has better chance to retain power in AP (despite decline in voting intentions in all regions) assuming MLAs create no problems and ministers will not mess up. If Jagan Reddy takes over as PCC Chief or some such responsible post, Congress can swing back or even do better than 2009.
Cyclone is an opportunity for Rosaiah to retrieve some of his lost ground within and outside the party.
A TV9 SURVEY FOR JAGAN
Independent Media
On the eve of the Congress government completing one year rule in Andhra Pradesh in its second innings, and especially after the death of YSR, TV9 conducted a survey through MDRA. Findings are quite interesting in the background of YSR’s son YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s isolation in the party. If the findings are reflective of the realities at the ground level, it must be an eye-opener to the high command and Jagan’s critics/detractors. The survey gives the impression that even performance cannot save the party in the state and that Jagan alone can pull the party out of the morass it finds itself in with too many factions pulling the party in different directions much to the glee of TDP and TRS.
It may be difficult for political observers to take the findings of the survey on their face value without being sceptical about the motives of the premier channel in the state. One cannot miss the timing of the survey though the channel has an excuse. Take for example this question. Who is the crowd puller in the party? The scope for answer is “None, Don’t know/can’t say, and Jagan Mohan Reddy”. One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to interpret this question. Naturally, more than 40% said “Jagan Reddy”. Every question is a loaded question in favour of Jagan.
Mediawhistle received 4 parts of the survey unsolicited. Here we reproduce the fourth part:
PART IV OF THE MRDA SURVEY FOR TV9
One year of a rule in a democracy is not long enough to assess and appraise whether the party in power has chance of a comeback. But considering the kind of turmoil the state of AP had gone through since the 2009 election with the death of CM YSR, the scene both with respect to politics and governance, has been witnessing unprecedented times full of uncertainties of all kind. It is against such a context, this MDRA survey for TV-9 on poll scene and prospects need to be viewed.
In this survey on the eve of completion of first year of Congress Govt’s second term in the state and Rosaiah’s eight months as Chief Minister, an effort was made to ascertain opportunities of parties and as to who had improved electorally since and what is the winning image of parties, which party benefited with the death of YSR and what would be voting preference.
1. Which party improved its position after the death of YSR? All respondents were asked as a part of the survey on the eve of first anniversary of Congress Govt’s second terms in the state.
Which party benefited after YSR death?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
44
57
35
TRS
19
9
49
Congress
26
28
9
PRP
6
1
1
Others/ DK/CS
4
4
5
TDP is viewed as the beneficiary of YSR’s death in all the regions. But in Telengana TRS is viewed as a beneficiary by a much higher percent of people. However, to what extent this is also meant electorally advantage would depend on other factors. Neither PRP nor BJP are viewed as beneficiaries.
2. Which party is expected to come to power if there is an election. What are the perceptions as things stand?
Which party is expected to come to power?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
31
39
37
TRS
+
+
39
Congress
49
57
21
PRP
18
1
1
Others
1
1
1
Perceptions as to which party is likely to come to power makes a difference, marginally or otherwise and help build up a poll scene. But that is when elections are within a near and known time frame.
Nevertheless, despite the disappointments, Congress party is perceived as the one likely to come to power by a significantly higher percent of voters in Coastal and Rayalseema (49-57%). But in Telengana, only 21% think so against 39% in the case of TRS and 37% in the case of TDP despite its “double speak” on Telengana.
3. Will Rosaiah be able to bring back Congress to form the Govt. whenever there are elections to the assembly?
Will Rosaiah bring back Congress to power?
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Yes
7
4
7
5
5
No
72
74
82
66
70
DK/CS
21
21
11
29
26
An overwhelming percent of people all across the state and among all socio-economic and demographic groups, think that Rosaiah will not be able to bring back Congress to power. This was response both in urban and rural. But that is the position if there is an election for the assembly around. This can only be an indication for the “mood’ of public since now to actual election time anything could happen in the party, outside with other parties and in the very functioning of the Govt.
4. Will the performance of Congress Govt. help it to come back to power? All respondents were asked. This enquiry assumes that the diction would be for the Assembly of Andhra Pradesh as at present.
Will performance bring back Congress?
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Not Sure
Coastal
9
79
1
11
Rayalseema
12
49
14
25
Telengana
8
65
7
21
In Congress held Constituencies
8
75
5
12
In other constituencies
10
60
8
22
A sensitivity analysis of the findings brings out a certain dilemma among voters at this point of time in mid May 2010. Going by the performance of Congress party in the last one year (and it obviously meant last 6-8 months with Rosaiah as CM), hardly ten percent expect Congress to come back. But when it comes to voting option and preference, a higher percent intend on voting for Congress as if that is a better option (with YSR schemes and the benefits there to see).
As high 39 percent in Rayalseema either are not sure or do not know or can not say – as if some are taking a wait and see approach (because of new options on its future).
But not so in Telengana – where it is only TRS which will have the advantage and retain its seats and even gain more seats. (But to a different question as to who will benefit if a separate state is made out, 26 percent in Telengana mentioned Congress and 14 percent said neither Congress nor TDP will benefit in Telengana) An implication is that once a separate state is agreed, the significance of TRS is unlikely to be the same as it is now.
5. Chances of Sitting MLAs getting elected again.
Yet another way of assessing poll prospects is win-ability of sitting MLAs. Going by this criterion, 54 percent of voters in constituencies with sitting Congress MLAs, think that the sitting will not get reelected. This finding needs to be seen as against only 28 percent who think so about their sitting in constituencies held by other parties (TRS, TDP). In Telengana, chances of TRS MLAs getting reelected are much higher than that of Congress and TDP MLAs. Clearly it amounts that voters are not only disappointed with Congress CM but also with their Congress MLAs. But the fact that 34 percent in constituencies held by TRS and TDP are not sure or can not say for the present imply that when it comes to voting, preferences are not polarized.
Relection chance of sitting MLA!
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Coastal
22
59
19
Rayalseema
31
24
45
Telengana
42
31
27
In Congress held constituencies
25
54
21
In other constituencies
37
28
34
6. Among Congress leaders who is viewed as the “crowd-puller” and “vote-getter” for Congress campaigns?
Who is crowd-puller and vote-getter for Congress party
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
None
27
29
23
16
40
DK/CS
27
28
8
39
41
Jagan Reddy
41
42
66
44
15
KCR
2
1
1
1
1
Generally party cadres in Congress tend to rally around leaders who are “crowd-pullers” and they are looked upon as a “vote-getters” too. Considering the kind of internal tussle going on within Congress party, all respondents were asked whom they consider as one such leader in Congress party. Despite too many leaders Congress has in Telengana, the party there seems suffering worst ever. For, 81% of respondents in Telengana consider none in the party as crowd-puller or a vote getter.
Jagan Reddy is as the only one who is considered by a high percent in Coastal (66%) and Rayalseema (44%). Only 15% think so in Telengana. The trend is similar in urban and rural.
7. Which leader is popular now in all parts of AP? All respondents were asked
Who is popular in all the regions?
(Figures in %)
Popular leader
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Congress MLA Seats
Other MLA Seats
Rosaiah
3
3
1
1
6
2
3
Chiranjeevi
7
6
14
2
2
10
4
Chandrababu
20
24
20
35
15
20
23
KCR
15
12
-
-
38
4
21
Jagan Reddy
52
51
62
56
36
60
45
DK/CS
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
Jagan Reddy is viewed as a leader across the regions by a much higher percent of voters, much higher than even Chandrababu Naidu who, after nine years as CM, otherwise is viewed as popular in the three regions but now next only to Jagan Reddy. Chiranjeevi is viewed popular by 14% in Coastal and by only insignificant percent in Rayalseema and Telengana. In Telengana Jagan Reddy (36%) has almost as many as in the case of KCR (38%) who think of him as a crowd puller and vote getter. Even in constituencies held by other parties, 45% think of Jagan Reddy against 21% who think of KCR and 23% in the case of Chandrababu.
A higher (24%) in rural consider Chandrababu as popular than in urban (20%). In the case of KCR, 15% think of him in urban against 12% in rural.
This survey brings out that both TDP and Congress slipped in Telengana in the vote intentions. This is despite that both the parties have a number of local leaders and that the two parties have been too smart in avoiding a definite stand on separation. But with one fifth of voters in Telengana are not sure or undecided about their voting performance, the scale may go either way depending on developments closer to the poll day. As of May 15, PRP has not improved in any of the regions. It in fact marginally slipped, while TRS had bettered its prospects in Telengana to win more seats.
8. Why shifts in voting intentions? A high percent of those who intend on voting differently now than the way they voted in 2009, were asked why they propose to do so?
Why wish to vote differently now if there is a poll?
(Figures in %)
In Congress held constituencies
In Other held constituencies
For separate Telengana
34
36
For Govt. job/employment
7
6
For drinking water
2
2
For better development
1
3
For batter candidate
13
13
For better administration
9
4
DK/CS
32
25
More than half of respondents who wish to vote differently now than the way they voted for in 2009 were not sure why they changed their preference. The percent of such voter is as high as 55 or more in Coastal and Rayalseema where as it is only 16% in the case of Telengana. That is separate Telengana issue will sway voters in Telengana significantly.
Half or more of those who intend on voting differently now if there is an election than they did is 2009, changed because of their support to the cause of separate Telengana. They voted earlier for Congress or TDP. The other reasons include “Better candidate” or unhappiness with sitting MLA. Employment opportunities, drinking water, better administration were also acknowledged as reasons.
With high undecided voters particularly in Telengana (one fifth), all that one could indicate now is a direction. The only party which is likely to increase its seats is TRS in Telengana. Even TDP is likely to improve its tally here, however marginally.
9. An Overview of Prospects
TDP holds on to its rural base, better than in urban; also among Madiga, and “other OBCs”. Its image at grass root level is better, but that is not getting converted into voting to make a difference in terms of seats. Overall, TDP has a chance of improving its overall tally, however marginally if it continues to draw back those who left it.
A majority of Kammas are not with TDP, they continue to be with Congress. Malas and Medigas continue their polarization between Congress and TDP. There is no significant change since 2009.
Reddies in Telengana have shifted to TRS. But, unlike Kammas in Coastal, they could be won back by Congress when the time comes. TDP’s two eyes approach has affected voting intention in Telengana only marginally. Both TDP & Congress declined in Telengana but Congress significantly.
Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress depending on what percent will go with PRP. They matter both for Congress & TDP.
Congress retains its lead in urban. But its image had suffered. It is YSR brand (promises, programms, schemes) which is likely to save the party – assuming Rosaiah will be assertive and positive Congress will be ahead in terms of voter support.
Overall, Congress has better chance to retain power in AP (despite decline in voting intentions in all regions) assuming MLAs create no problems and ministers will not mess up. If Jagan Reddy takes over as PCC Chief or some such responsible post, Congress can swing back or even do better than 2009.
Cyclone is an opportunity for Rosaiah to retrieve some of his lost ground within and outside the party.
On the eve of the Congress government completing one year rule in Andhra Pradesh in its second innings, and especially after the death of YSR, TV9 conducted a survey through MDRA. Findings are quite interesting in the background of YSR’s son YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s isolation in the party. If the findings are reflective of the realities at the ground level, it must be an eye-opener to the high command and Jagan’s critics/detractors. The survey gives the impression that even performance cannot save the party in the state and that Jagan alone can pull the party out of the morass it finds itself in with too many factions pulling the party in different directions much to the glee of TDP and TRS.
It may be difficult for political observers to take the findings of the survey on their face value without being sceptical about the motives of the premier channel in the state. One cannot miss the timing of the survey though the channel has an excuse. Take for example this question. Who is the crowd puller in the party? The scope for answer is “None, Don’t know/can’t say, and Jagan Mohan Reddy”. One doesn’t have to be a political pundit to interpret this question. Naturally, more than 40% said “Jagan Reddy”. Every question is a loaded question in favour of Jagan.
Mediawhistle received 4 parts of the survey unsolicited. Here we reproduce the fourth part:
PART IV OF THE MRDA SURVEY FOR TV9
One year of a rule in a democracy is not long enough to assess and appraise whether the party in power has chance of a comeback. But considering the kind of turmoil the state of AP had gone through since the 2009 election with the death of CM YSR, the scene both with respect to politics and governance, has been witnessing unprecedented times full of uncertainties of all kind. It is against such a context, this MDRA survey for TV-9 on poll scene and prospects need to be viewed.
In this survey on the eve of completion of first year of Congress Govt’s second term in the state and Rosaiah’s eight months as Chief Minister, an effort was made to ascertain opportunities of parties and as to who had improved electorally since and what is the winning image of parties, which party benefited with the death of YSR and what would be voting preference.
1. Which party improved its position after the death of YSR? All respondents were asked as a part of the survey on the eve of first anniversary of Congress Govt’s second terms in the state.
Which party benefited after YSR death?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
44
57
35
TRS
19
9
49
Congress
26
28
9
PRP
6
1
1
Others/ DK/CS
4
4
5
TDP is viewed as the beneficiary of YSR’s death in all the regions. But in Telengana TRS is viewed as a beneficiary by a much higher percent of people. However, to what extent this is also meant electorally advantage would depend on other factors. Neither PRP nor BJP are viewed as beneficiaries.
2. Which party is expected to come to power if there is an election. What are the perceptions as things stand?
Which party is expected to come to power?
(Figures in %)
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
TDP
31
39
37
TRS
+
+
39
Congress
49
57
21
PRP
18
1
1
Others
1
1
1
Perceptions as to which party is likely to come to power makes a difference, marginally or otherwise and help build up a poll scene. But that is when elections are within a near and known time frame.
Nevertheless, despite the disappointments, Congress party is perceived as the one likely to come to power by a significantly higher percent of voters in Coastal and Rayalseema (49-57%). But in Telengana, only 21% think so against 39% in the case of TRS and 37% in the case of TDP despite its “double speak” on Telengana.
3. Will Rosaiah be able to bring back Congress to form the Govt. whenever there are elections to the assembly?
Will Rosaiah bring back Congress to power?
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Yes
7
4
7
5
5
No
72
74
82
66
70
DK/CS
21
21
11
29
26
An overwhelming percent of people all across the state and among all socio-economic and demographic groups, think that Rosaiah will not be able to bring back Congress to power. This was response both in urban and rural. But that is the position if there is an election for the assembly around. This can only be an indication for the “mood’ of public since now to actual election time anything could happen in the party, outside with other parties and in the very functioning of the Govt.
4. Will the performance of Congress Govt. help it to come back to power? All respondents were asked. This enquiry assumes that the diction would be for the Assembly of Andhra Pradesh as at present.
Will performance bring back Congress?
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Not Sure
Coastal
9
79
1
11
Rayalseema
12
49
14
25
Telengana
8
65
7
21
In Congress held Constituencies
8
75
5
12
In other constituencies
10
60
8
22
A sensitivity analysis of the findings brings out a certain dilemma among voters at this point of time in mid May 2010. Going by the performance of Congress party in the last one year (and it obviously meant last 6-8 months with Rosaiah as CM), hardly ten percent expect Congress to come back. But when it comes to voting option and preference, a higher percent intend on voting for Congress as if that is a better option (with YSR schemes and the benefits there to see).
As high 39 percent in Rayalseema either are not sure or do not know or can not say – as if some are taking a wait and see approach (because of new options on its future).
But not so in Telengana – where it is only TRS which will have the advantage and retain its seats and even gain more seats. (But to a different question as to who will benefit if a separate state is made out, 26 percent in Telengana mentioned Congress and 14 percent said neither Congress nor TDP will benefit in Telengana) An implication is that once a separate state is agreed, the significance of TRS is unlikely to be the same as it is now.
5. Chances of Sitting MLAs getting elected again.
Yet another way of assessing poll prospects is win-ability of sitting MLAs. Going by this criterion, 54 percent of voters in constituencies with sitting Congress MLAs, think that the sitting will not get reelected. This finding needs to be seen as against only 28 percent who think so about their sitting in constituencies held by other parties (TRS, TDP). In Telengana, chances of TRS MLAs getting reelected are much higher than that of Congress and TDP MLAs. Clearly it amounts that voters are not only disappointed with Congress CM but also with their Congress MLAs. But the fact that 34 percent in constituencies held by TRS and TDP are not sure or can not say for the present imply that when it comes to voting, preferences are not polarized.
Relection chance of sitting MLA!
(Figures in %)
Yes
No
DK/CS
Coastal
22
59
19
Rayalseema
31
24
45
Telengana
42
31
27
In Congress held constituencies
25
54
21
In other constituencies
37
28
34
6. Among Congress leaders who is viewed as the “crowd-puller” and “vote-getter” for Congress campaigns?
Who is crowd-puller and vote-getter for Congress party
(Figures in %)
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
None
27
29
23
16
40
DK/CS
27
28
8
39
41
Jagan Reddy
41
42
66
44
15
KCR
2
1
1
1
1
Generally party cadres in Congress tend to rally around leaders who are “crowd-pullers” and they are looked upon as a “vote-getters” too. Considering the kind of internal tussle going on within Congress party, all respondents were asked whom they consider as one such leader in Congress party. Despite too many leaders Congress has in Telengana, the party there seems suffering worst ever. For, 81% of respondents in Telengana consider none in the party as crowd-puller or a vote getter.
Jagan Reddy is as the only one who is considered by a high percent in Coastal (66%) and Rayalseema (44%). Only 15% think so in Telengana. The trend is similar in urban and rural.
7. Which leader is popular now in all parts of AP? All respondents were asked
Who is popular in all the regions?
(Figures in %)
Popular leader
Urban
Rural
Coastal
Rayalseema
Telengana
Congress MLA Seats
Other MLA Seats
Rosaiah
3
3
1
1
6
2
3
Chiranjeevi
7
6
14
2
2
10
4
Chandrababu
20
24
20
35
15
20
23
KCR
15
12
-
-
38
4
21
Jagan Reddy
52
51
62
56
36
60
45
DK/CS
2
2
2
5
3
3
2
Jagan Reddy is viewed as a leader across the regions by a much higher percent of voters, much higher than even Chandrababu Naidu who, after nine years as CM, otherwise is viewed as popular in the three regions but now next only to Jagan Reddy. Chiranjeevi is viewed popular by 14% in Coastal and by only insignificant percent in Rayalseema and Telengana. In Telengana Jagan Reddy (36%) has almost as many as in the case of KCR (38%) who think of him as a crowd puller and vote getter. Even in constituencies held by other parties, 45% think of Jagan Reddy against 21% who think of KCR and 23% in the case of Chandrababu.
A higher (24%) in rural consider Chandrababu as popular than in urban (20%). In the case of KCR, 15% think of him in urban against 12% in rural.
This survey brings out that both TDP and Congress slipped in Telengana in the vote intentions. This is despite that both the parties have a number of local leaders and that the two parties have been too smart in avoiding a definite stand on separation. But with one fifth of voters in Telengana are not sure or undecided about their voting performance, the scale may go either way depending on developments closer to the poll day. As of May 15, PRP has not improved in any of the regions. It in fact marginally slipped, while TRS had bettered its prospects in Telengana to win more seats.
8. Why shifts in voting intentions? A high percent of those who intend on voting differently now than the way they voted in 2009, were asked why they propose to do so?
Why wish to vote differently now if there is a poll?
(Figures in %)
In Congress held constituencies
In Other held constituencies
For separate Telengana
34
36
For Govt. job/employment
7
6
For drinking water
2
2
For better development
1
3
For batter candidate
13
13
For better administration
9
4
DK/CS
32
25
More than half of respondents who wish to vote differently now than the way they voted for in 2009 were not sure why they changed their preference. The percent of such voter is as high as 55 or more in Coastal and Rayalseema where as it is only 16% in the case of Telengana. That is separate Telengana issue will sway voters in Telengana significantly.
Half or more of those who intend on voting differently now if there is an election than they did is 2009, changed because of their support to the cause of separate Telengana. They voted earlier for Congress or TDP. The other reasons include “Better candidate” or unhappiness with sitting MLA. Employment opportunities, drinking water, better administration were also acknowledged as reasons.
With high undecided voters particularly in Telengana (one fifth), all that one could indicate now is a direction. The only party which is likely to increase its seats is TRS in Telengana. Even TDP is likely to improve its tally here, however marginally.
9. An Overview of Prospects
TDP holds on to its rural base, better than in urban; also among Madiga, and “other OBCs”. Its image at grass root level is better, but that is not getting converted into voting to make a difference in terms of seats. Overall, TDP has a chance of improving its overall tally, however marginally if it continues to draw back those who left it.
A majority of Kammas are not with TDP, they continue to be with Congress. Malas and Medigas continue their polarization between Congress and TDP. There is no significant change since 2009.
Reddies in Telengana have shifted to TRS. But, unlike Kammas in Coastal, they could be won back by Congress when the time comes. TDP’s two eyes approach has affected voting intention in Telengana only marginally. Both TDP & Congress declined in Telengana but Congress significantly.
Kapus are divided between TDP and Congress depending on what percent will go with PRP. They matter both for Congress & TDP.
Congress retains its lead in urban. But its image had suffered. It is YSR brand (promises, programms, schemes) which is likely to save the party – assuming Rosaiah will be assertive and positive Congress will be ahead in terms of voter support.
Overall, Congress has better chance to retain power in AP (despite decline in voting intentions in all regions) assuming MLAs create no problems and ministers will not mess up. If Jagan Reddy takes over as PCC Chief or some such responsible post, Congress can swing back or even do better than 2009.
Cyclone is an opportunity for Rosaiah to retrieve some of his lost ground within and outside the party.
Results of Nielsen ORG Marg –NTV Survey:Jagan is the Future of Congress in Andhra Pradesh
Independent Media
Results of Nielsen ORG Marg –NTV Survey:
(Number in brackets is vote percentage parties got in 2009 elections)
1. Congress: 33% (36%) – Congress is much ahead of Telugu Desam and PRP in Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
2. TDP: 26% (24%) – Nara Chandrababu Naidu failed to inspire cadre and fight hard on people’s issues. TDP vote percentage rose by just 2%.
3. PRP: 16% (16%) – Prajarajyam party still has significant presence in coastal Andhra but not a deciding factor in rest of Andhra.
4. TRS: 13% (4%) – TRS increased its vote share by massive 9%. They are expected to get 30% of votes in Telangana region.
NTV survey: AP most popular leader Jagan: why congress leadership is blind
Independent Media
 Kadapa MP Y S Jaganmohan Reddy is the most popular among the political leaders in the state at present, says a study conducted by popular agency Nielsen-ORG for Telugu television channel NTV. According to the survey, 44 per cent of the people in the state feel that Jagan is the most efficient leader, truly capable of ensuring that good people oriented projects are developed and benefits actually reach the people. The second rank goes to Telugu Desam Party president N Chandrababu Naidu, as 31 per cent of the people feel that he is the best alternative in the present situation. On the other hand, only nine per cent of the people voted for Rosaiah as the best leader, while 8 per cent voted for Telangana Rashtra Samithi president K Chandrasekhara Rao. Praja Rajyam Party president Chiranjeevi is the last choice of the people with only five per cent voting for him. Only in Telangana, Jagan has got the third position with just 25 per cent vote, while KCR got the first place with 30 per cent support and the second rank goes to Chandrababu Naidu with 29 per cent. Rosaiah finishes the poor fourth with 10 per cent and Chiranjeevi in the last place with only three per cent support. In Rayalaseema, Jagan got the maximum popular support with 62 per cent people preferring him, compared to Naidus’ 32 per cent. The survey says former chief minister Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s popularity has a significant rub-off on Jagan. | |
Congress warns Jagan on yatra: Iron hand on New born leader
Independent Media
NEW DELHI: As Kadapa MP Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy prepares to recommence his “odarpu yatra” from Thursday to meet and console the kin of those who died unable to bear the shock of the death of his father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, the Congress high command on Tuesday issued a veiled threat to him to face the consequences if he defied its order.
Congress leaders here believe the yatra will aggravate the turbulent political situation in Andhra Pradesh. Congress spokesman Abishek Singhvi told journalists here: “All true committed and loyal Congressmen must observe both the party dharma and the Lakshman rekha of propriety and party discipline. The failure to do so would perforce lead to a chain of consequences, which are best avoidable. We hope compliance will take the place of defiance… party discipline, like law, does not discriminate between individuals.”
Chairman of the party media department and disciplinary committee Janardhan Dwivedi said a report on the issue had been sought from Congress general secretary in charge of Andhra Pradesh and Union Law Minister M. Veerappa Moily. Mr. Moily is now in London and is expected back in Delhi on Monday.
Sources pointed out that Congress president Sonia Gandhi advised Mr. Reddy on June 29, during a meeting he and his family had with her, to arrange to meet all the families of the victims at one place instead of going on a yatra. If Mr. Reddy still decided to go ahead with the programme, there were chances of the high command even issuing a show-cause. They pointed out that the party in Delhi and A.P. wanted to concentrate on the Assembly by-elections in Telangana and nothing should divert its attention at this juncture. Mr. Reddy's similar attempt to recommence the yatra in Telangana areas on May 28 resulted in violence.
NEW DELHI: As Kadapa MP Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy prepares to recommence his “odarpu yatra” from Thursday to meet and console the kin of those who died unable to bear the shock of the death of his father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, the Congress high command on Tuesday issued a veiled threat to him to face the consequences if he defied its order.
Congress leaders here believe the yatra will aggravate the turbulent political situation in Andhra Pradesh. Congress spokesman Abishek Singhvi told journalists here: “All true committed and loyal Congressmen must observe both the party dharma and the Lakshman rekha of propriety and party discipline. The failure to do so would perforce lead to a chain of consequences, which are best avoidable. We hope compliance will take the place of defiance… party discipline, like law, does not discriminate between individuals.”
Chairman of the party media department and disciplinary committee Janardhan Dwivedi said a report on the issue had been sought from Congress general secretary in charge of Andhra Pradesh and Union Law Minister M. Veerappa Moily. Mr. Moily is now in London and is expected back in Delhi on Monday.
Sources pointed out that Congress president Sonia Gandhi advised Mr. Reddy on June 29, during a meeting he and his family had with her, to arrange to meet all the families of the victims at one place instead of going on a yatra. If Mr. Reddy still decided to go ahead with the programme, there were chances of the high command even issuing a show-cause. They pointed out that the party in Delhi and A.P. wanted to concentrate on the Assembly by-elections in Telangana and nothing should divert its attention at this juncture. Mr. Reddy's similar attempt to recommence the yatra in Telangana areas on May 28 resulted in violence.
6.7.10
Jagan Mohan Reddy with information to Sonia,: All set to resume yatra
Independent Media
Hyderabad: Andhra Pradesh Congress MP Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy on Monday appeared defiant as he announced his decision to go ahead with his controversial yatra from July 8 despite party chief Sonia Gandhi's reservations about it.
Jagan, who defied the party directive against undertaking the yatra earlier, had met Gandhi along with his family members on June 29 to seek her permission for the tour. The meeting took place in New Delhi on the request of Jagan's mother Vijayalakshmi.
"We explained to her the need to resume the yatra to console the family members of those who died following the death of my father (YSR Reddy). She (Sonia Gandhi) did not cite any specific reason but did not appear to be favourably inclined over resuming the yatra," Jagan, son of late Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, said in an open letter to the people.
During the meeting of his family members with Gandhi, the Congress chief had suggested assembling the affected families at one place to console them and also to offer financial assistance, the young Lok Sabha MP said.
Hyderabad: Andhra Pradesh Congress MP Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy on Monday appeared defiant as he announced his decision to go ahead with his controversial yatra from July 8 despite party chief Sonia Gandhi's reservations about it.
Jagan, who defied the party directive against undertaking the yatra earlier, had met Gandhi along with his family members on June 29 to seek her permission for the tour. The meeting took place in New Delhi on the request of Jagan's mother Vijayalakshmi.
"We explained to her the need to resume the yatra to console the family members of those who died following the death of my father (YSR Reddy). She (Sonia Gandhi) did not cite any specific reason but did not appear to be favourably inclined over resuming the yatra," Jagan, son of late Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, said in an open letter to the people.
During the meeting of his family members with Gandhi, the Congress chief had suggested assembling the affected families at one place to console them and also to offer financial assistance, the young Lok Sabha MP said.
"But my mother pointed out that it is not a good tradition to call them instead of my going there for consoling. She reminded Sonia Gandhi that she had come to Hyderabad to console us after the death of my father," he said.
Regretting that his yatra came under the shadow of political controversies, Jagan Mohan, the Kadappa MP, said he waited patiently so as not to be misunderstood.
Jagan would pay tributes to his father at Idupulapaya, the family estate where he was buried, tomorrow and later proceed to Ichapuram in Srikakulam district on July 8 to resume his tour.
Defying the Congress high command's directive, Jagan had left by train to start his yatra in Warangal district on May 28 but it was marred by violent protests from Telangana supporters.
Later, he met AICC General Secretary Veerappa Moily, in-charge of Congress affairs in Andhra Pradesh, and claimed after the meeting that the high command has approved of his yatra. The claim was, however, dismissed by Moily.
Subsequently, Jagan, his mother and sister met Gandhi in a bid to secure permission to undertake the yatra.
Regretting that his yatra came under the shadow of political controversies, Jagan Mohan, the Kadappa MP, said he waited patiently so as not to be misunderstood.
Jagan would pay tributes to his father at Idupulapaya, the family estate where he was buried, tomorrow and later proceed to Ichapuram in Srikakulam district on July 8 to resume his tour.
Defying the Congress high command's directive, Jagan had left by train to start his yatra in Warangal district on May 28 but it was marred by violent protests from Telangana supporters.
Later, he met AICC General Secretary Veerappa Moily, in-charge of Congress affairs in Andhra Pradesh, and claimed after the meeting that the high command has approved of his yatra. The claim was, however, dismissed by Moily.
Subsequently, Jagan, his mother and sister met Gandhi in a bid to secure permission to undertake the yatra.
Tamila maanila Congress: INC splinter in Tamil Nadu
The Tamil Maanila Congress was a political party in Tamil Nadu. It was started by G K Moopanar by breaking away from the Indian National Congress protesting the decision of the party high command to form an alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. After the death of Moopanar, his son G K Vasan became the party president. It was later decided to merge the party back with the Indian National Congress.[1]| Year | General Election | Votes Polled | Seats Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 11th Tamil Nadu Assembly | 2,526,474 | 39 |
| 1996 | 11th Lok Sabha | 7,339,982 | 20 |
| 1998 | 12th Lok Sabha | 5,169,183 | 3 |
| 1999 | 13th Lok Sabha | 2,946,899 | 0 |
| 2001 | 12th Tamil Nadu Assembly | 1,885,726 | 23 |
Splinter Congress: NCP Strong foot hold in Maharastra
:Sharadchandra Govindrao Pawar (Marathi: शरदचंद्र गोविंदराव पवार) (born December 12, 1940), popularly known as Sharad Pawar is an Indian politician from the state of Maharashtra. He is the president of the Nationalist Congress Party which he founded in 1999, after separating from theIndian National Congress. He has previously held the posts of Defence Minister of India and Chief Minister of Maharashtra and currently serves as Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government of India.
Pawar is from the town of Baramati in the Pune district of Maharashtra. He leads the NCP delegation in the Lok Sabha, representing his constituency of Madha in Maharashtra. He has a prominent place in Indian national politics as well as regional politics of Maharashtra.
Pawar also served as the Chairman of the Board of Control for Cricket in India from 2005 to 2008. In 2010, Sharad Pawar became the International Cricket Council president after England's David Morgan. [1]Till 1990
Sharad Pawar entered the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly for the first time in 1967 from Baramati, representing the undivided Congress Party.
Pawar broke away from the Congress to form a coalition government with the opposition Janata party in 1978 becoming the Chief Minister of Maharashtra for the first time at a time when Indira Gandhi had become incredibly unpopular due to her imposition of Emergency in 1975. ThisProgressive Democratic Front government was dismissed in February 1980, following Indira Gandhi's return to power at the Centre.
In the elections that followed, the Congress party won the majority in state assembly and A.R. Antulay,took over as the chief minister of the state. Pawar took over the Presidency of the Congress in 1981. For the first time, he won Lok Sabha election from Baramati parliamentary constituency in 1984. He also won state assembly elections of March 1985 from Baramati and preferred to continue in state politics for a while and resigned from the Lok Sabha. His party, the Indian Congress (Socialist) won 54 seats out of 288 in the state assembly and he became theleader of the opposition.
His returning to the Congress has been cited as a reason for the rise of the Shiv Sena at that time. In June 1988, Prime Minister of India and Congress President Rajiv Gandhi decided to induct then Maharashtra Chief Minister Shankarrao Chavan into Union Cabinet as Finance Minister and Sharad Pawar was chosen to replace Chavan as chief minister. Sharad Pawar had the task of checking the rise of the Shiv Sena in state politics, which was a potential challenge to the dominance of Congress party in the state[citation needed]. In 1989 Lok Sabha elections, Congress party won 28 seats out of 48 in Maharashtra. In the state assembly elections of February 1990, the alliance between the Shiv Sena and theBharatiya Janata Party posed a stiff challenge to the Congress. Congress fell short of an absolute majority in the state assembly, winning 141 seats out 288. Sharad Pawar was sworn in as chief minister again on March 4, 1990 with the support of 12 independent MLAs.
During the course of election campaign, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. There were reports in the media that Pawar's name was being considered for the Prime Minister's post along with those of P.V. Narasimha Rao and N.D. Tiwari.[2][3][4] However the Congress Parliamentary Party elected P.V. Narasimha Rao as its leader and he was sworn in as Prime Minister on June 21, 1991. Rao decided to induct Pawar as Defence Minister. On June 26, 1991, Pawar took over as that portfolio, continuing till March 1993. After Pawar's successor in Maharashtra, Sudhakarrao Naik stepped down, Rao sent Pawar back as chief minister of the state.
He was sworn in as chief minister for his fourth and most controversial term[citation needed] on March 6, 1993. Almost immediately, Mumbai, the financial capital of India and the state capital of Maharashtra, was rocked with series of bomb blasts on March 12, 1993.Sharad Pawar was sworn in as chief minister of maharashtra for first time in 1978 and not in 1979 as stated in the article career till 1990.
he Deputy Commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, G.R. Khairnar made a series of accusations against Pawar for being involved in corruption and protecting the criminals[citation needed]. Though Khairnar could not produce any evidence in support of his claims, it inevitably affected Pawar's popularity. Notable social worker Anna Hazare started a fast unto death to demand expulsion of 12 officers of the Forest department of Government of Maharashtra, who had been accused of corruption. The opposition parties accused Pawar's government of trying to shield the corrupt officers. The 1994 Gowari stampede occurred at Nagpur during the Winter Session of Maharashtra State Assemblyand killed 114 people. Nagpur Police were trying to disperse almost 50000 Gowari protesters using baton charge but it created panic and triggered stampede amongst protesters[5].Allegations were made that the mishap occurred because welfare minister Madhukarrao Pichad did not meet with the delegation of the Vanjara people in time. Though Pichad stepped down owing moral responsibility for the mishap, this incident was another setback to Sharad Pawar's government.
The elections to the Vidhan Sabha were due to be held in 1995. The Shiv Sena and BJP combine was leading the Congress in the polls, and there was widespread rebellion in the Congress party. The Shiv Sena-BJP combine won 138 seats while Congress party retained only 80 seats in the state assembly. Sharad Pawar had to step down and Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi took over as chief minister on March 14, 1995.
Till the Lok Sabha elections of 1996, Sharad Pawar served as the Leader of the Opposition in State Legislative Council. In the 1996 General elections, he won from the Baramati seat and has not returned to the State Assembly since.In June 1997, he unsuccessfully challenged Sitaram Kesri for the post of Congress President. In the mid-term parliamentary elections of 1998, Sharad Pawar not only won from his constituency, Baramati but also led the Congress to an emphatic win in Maharashtra. His move to align with the Republican Party of India (Athvale) and Samajwadi Party for the elections in the state brought rich dividents and the Congress party and allies won 37 seats out of 48 in the state. Sharad Pawar served as Leader of Opposition in 12th Lok Sabha.
After 12th Lok Sabha was dissolved and elections to 13th Lok Sabha were due, Pawar, P.A. Sangma and Tariq Anwar demanded that the Congress Party needed to project someone born in India as the Prime Ministerial candidate and not the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, who had entered party politics and replaced Kesri as Congress President.
In June 1999, Pawar and Sangma founded the Nationalist Congress Party. His party had to align with the Congress party to form a coalition government in Maharashtra as neither party could win an absolute majority on its own in the 1999 assembly elections. Pawar, however, did not return to state politics, and Vilasrao Deshmukh of the Congress was chosen as Chief Minister, with Chagan Bhujbal representing the NCP as his deputy. The alliance has endured at the national and state level to this day.
After 2004 Lok Sabha elections, he joined the United Progressive Alliance government headed by Manmohan Singh as the Minister for Agriculture and Food.
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